Signal Track Record
We track every insider trade signal we publish and measure whether the stock moved in the direction the insider's action implied. Here is how we do it.
Dataset update
We began tracking signal outcomes in April 2026 and publish results weekly as the dataset grows.
Statistically meaningful hit-rate percentages require hundreds of completed observations across multiple market conditions. We will publish aggregate performance numbers once we have enough data to report them honestly. Until then, you can see every individual trade outcome in the weekly Signal Board newsletter.
How signals are identified
Every weekday, our pipeline ingests SEC EDGAR Form 4 filings for all S&P 500 companies. A filing becomes a signal when it meets one or more of the following criteria:
- An executive or director made an open-market purchase (transaction code P), which is typically the strongest signal because it requires spending personal capital.
- An open-market sale (code S) that is not part of a pre-scheduled 10b5-1 trading plan, since plan-driven sales are disclosed in advance and carry less informational value.
- Cluster buying: multiple insiders at the same company buying within a short window.
Automatic transactions (tax withholding, awards, option exercises) are tracked but not counted as discretionary signals.
How outcomes are measured
| Metric | Definition |
|---|---|
| Signal window | The day a Form 4 filing is published on SEC EDGAR |
| Outcome: 1 week | Closing price 5 trading days after the signal date vs. signal-day close |
| Outcome: 2 weeks | Closing price 10 trading days after the signal date vs. signal-day close |
| Outcome: 4 weeks | Closing price 20 trading days after the signal date vs. signal-day close |
| Direction match | For a buy signal (code P), a positive price move is a match. For a sell signal (code S), a negative move is a match. |
| Excluded codes | Tax withholding (F), Awards (A), and Option Exercises (M) are excluded from signal scoring because they are automatic or non-discretionary. |
| Universe | All S&P 500 companies with active SEC filings (503 as of tracking start) |
What this page will show
As the dataset matures, we will display:
- Aggregate direction-match rates at 1-week, 2-week, and 4-week horizons for open-market purchases and sales separately.
- Performance breakdown by sector (Technology, Healthcare, Financials, etc.).
- Comparison of 10b5-1 plan trades vs. non-plan trades.
- Average and median price change following signals, net of S&P 500 benchmark return during the same window.
We commit to publishing all results, not just favorable ones. If our signals underperform, we will say so and explain why.
Past insider trading activity is not a guarantee of future price performance. This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. The Filing Cabinet is not a registered investment adviser.
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